A dramatic change

30 Sep 2009

After May 2004 Central and Eastern Europe had a dramatic change. On one side Russia is trying to maintain its influence in the region, on the other former Kremlin’s satellites are looking for a new dimension. The European integration is one of the crucial topics in the EU agenda. The risk of isolating Moscow is real as its anger as a resurgent power.

The  western world needs Russia as a faithful ally for its raw material wealth, for its military capability, for its culture, for its experience in dealing with eastern peoples. There are too many existing challenges in the 21st century to do alone: nuclear proliferation, international terrorism, migration, climate changes, Chinese emerging power, reducing traditional energy sources.

Former Soviet republics and ‘new European’ States are seeking a difficult balance to reach. The history of the terrible for the entire Euro-Asian region 20th century still provokes political divisions in current affairs. How long will these problems continue to be painful?

Iran nuclear programme is the first topic in the international agenda after a secret  site has been recently discovered. President Obama decided to replace George Bush’s plan for the anti-missile Shield in Central Europe, clearing the way for better relationships with the Kremlin.

Iran maintains that its nuclear activities are peaceful, a view that is publicly shared by Russia, first supplier of atomic technology to the ayatollah. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said earlier in September that there was no evidence that Iran was developing a nuclear bomb. The United States and Israel want Moscow to modify this position now.

The strange story of the Russian ship ‘Arctic Sea’  with a probable cargo of  S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems created anxiety in a number of European capitals. All options against Teheran, including the military,  are open in this moment. But what will Moscow do in case of an air attack against Iran? Will Russia miss the super-chance given by Obama to reset the relationship with the West?

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