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Kyiv is not planning to speed up the drafting of an association agreement in terms of a free trade area under the conditions being set by the European Union and will continue to defend its interests, Head of Ukraine’s Mission to the EU Kostiantyn Yeliseyev has said in an exclusive interview with Interfax-Ukraine. He also added that the Ukrainian side “is holding talks not for the sake of talks and not for the sake of the period ‘by the end of 2011,’ but for the sake of content.”
“Yes, there is a political directive to end the talks as soon as possible, but this should not be done at the expense of the quality of the agreement. The content of the agreement should not be the subject for compromise, and even the time frame cannot be an excuse in order to weaken our positions. I want the EU to understand this,” Yeliseyev said.
In this connection, he noted that “sometimes it’s better to hold talks a little longer, because it’s not difficult to sign the document.” “We can sign the agreement even today, but the Ukrainian side is not worried about the signing, it’s worried about how we will implement it. We’ll be unable to implement this agreement effectively and successfully under the conditions that are currently being set,” the Ukrainian diplomat said.
Interfax – Ukraine
Gazprom, Eni strategic partners till 2012.
24 Dec 2010
From Gazprom site
Russia’s Gazprom and Italy’s Eni have extended their 2006 strategic partnership until 2012. The companies signed agreements for technical-scientific cooperation in the upstream and downstream sectors. Integrated working groups will be set up to study application of drilling, production, transportation, energy saving and liquefied natural gas (LNG) technologies and processes, as well as personnel training, Gazprom said.
Under the 2006 agreement, Eni and Gazprom have launched joint projects in mid and downstream gas, in the upstream sector and in technological cooperation, including the South Stream gas pipeline project to bring Russia’s gas to Europe.
Alexey Miller, Chairman of the Gazprom Management Committee and Paolo Scaroni, Chief Executive Officer of Eni, also discussed gas supplies to Italy and implementation of measures for French EDF entry in the shareholding structure of South Stream AG..
Russia – USA. The new START after the “reset”.
24 Dec 2010
The world is a little bit safer today after the agreement among former foes on the most complex part of the Cold War legacy. The U.S. Senate passed the New START treaty by a vote of 71 to 26 on Wednesday, while the Russian parliament may give its approval to the pact soon. Moscow becomes a real partner to the West and in the next following months will take part in the building up of the regional anti-missile Shield together with the USA and NATO.
The New Start treaty, which will replace its lapsed predecessor Start (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty), was signed by the two Presidents Obama and Medvedev in April 2010. It trims US and Russian nuclear arsenals to 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads – a cut of about 30% from a limit set eight years ago. The treaty would also allow each side visually to inspect the other’s nuclear capability, with the aim of verifying how many warheads each missile carries.
”Within 45 days after entry into force, we will also then be exchanging our first data for the database under the treaty,” Rose Gottemoeller, US assistant secretary for the Bureau of Arms Control, Verification and Compliance, told. “That’s data on the current status and deployment of our strategic nuclear forces – intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and bombers,” she said. She also added that the first inspections will take place within 60 days after entry into force of the new START.
The cuts in the arsenals were the easiest part of the negotiated agreement. Americans and Russians take equally important technological and economic benefits from this decision. Old and outdated weapons, which maintenance costs too, will be dismissed. Financial savings will be used for research and development of new weapons.
The New START treaty is “a cornerstone of security for the coming decades,” according to President Medvedev. “The treaty brings our relations with the United States to a fundamentally new qualitative level, to the level of equality, parity, and a balance of interests,” Foreign Minister Sergei V. Lavrov told deputies at the Duma, the Russian low chamber of Parliament.
Japan, the only nation ever to have come under nuclear attack, called the ratification of the START an “important progress” in disarmament efforts by Washington and Moscow. Tadatoshi Akiba, the mayor of Hiroshima, which was destroyed by the world’s first atomic bombing in 1945, said “a world without nuclear weapons” had come “a step closer”, as sought by US President Obama. The USA and Russia send a clear signal on their leadership role against nuclear proliferation.
The first major positive consequence of the ratification of the treaty is the birth of a common regional shield to protect the West and Russia against short-and medium isolated missile launches, as decided at the Lisbon summit in November. The former “rogue States” will need years to develop modern intercontinental carriers. This is one of the reasons why President Obama decided not to follow Bush’s military policy with the development of the strategic Shield in Europe.
The second effect is political. The Kremlin is no more isolated as it was from 2006 to 2009. A fully integrated in the West and the most possible democratic Russia is a guarantee of stability for the entire world.
Giuseppe D’Amato
Economic Outlook – BALTIC STATES, December 2010.
17 Dec 2010Latest Data – December 2010.
The economic crisis in the Baltic states has begun to ease. “Growth prospects will depend on how well these countries can shift to a more export-oriented model,” Mark Allen, senior IMF resident representative for Central and Eastern Europe.
1. Estonia
In 2009 GDP -13,9%. According to Statistics Estonia, by flash estimates, the gross domestic product (GDP) of Estonia increased by 4.7% in the 3rd quarter of 2010 compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Q3 2010: 4.7%; Q2 2010: 3.1%; Q1 2010: -2.0%. This change was influenced by the growth of value added in the manufacturing activity created owing to a vigorous growth of exports.
The European Commission raised in its fresh autumn forecast Estonia’s economic growth forecast to 2.4% for the year 2010 and 4.4% for 2011. In 2012 the economy should grow 3.5%.
The Commission forecasts unemployment at 17.5% this year, 15.1% next year and 13.6% in 2012. Inflation should be 2.7% this year, 3.6% next year and 2.3% in 2012
EURO – “We are at sea in a small boat tied to an ocean liner. In a storm or otherwise, we’d feel better being on board,” is how Estonian finance minister Jürgen Ligi describes his country’s determination to join the euro zone from January 1st, writes Bloomberg.
Estonia’s budget deficit may be about 1.3 percent of gross domestic product this year, Finance ministry said.
2. Latvia
In 2009 the GDP shrank 18%, the worst fall in the European Union. A 7.5 billion euro bailout was led by the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission in 2008. Latvia expects a 0.4% fall in the economy in 2010. In 2011 the growth is expected to be around 3.3%. Government debt will peak at about 50.4 percent of GDP, according to the IMF.
The targeted deficit cut was 280 million lats ($541 million) in the 2011 budget so the expected deficit reduction measures would be worth 2 percent of GDP. Latvia had already taken measures worth 1 billion lats in 2009 and 2010 to cap the deficit. Some of the austerity measures included public sector job losses and wage cuts by up to 50 percent as well as higher personal income tax rates and and a rise in value added tax. In 2011 the targeted budget deficit will be 6% of gross domestic product.
3. Lithuania
In 2009 Lithuania’s economy shrank 14,7%. In 2010 GDP Q3 2010: +0.6%, Q2 2010: +1.1%, Q1 2010: -2.0%. The government forecasts the economy will expand 1.6% in 2010. The 2011 budget was approved by the Lithuanian Parliament on December 9th. The targeted budget deficit will be 5.8% of GDP. Unemployment reached 17.8% in 2010.
Economic Outlook – POLAND, December 2010.
17 Dec 2010LATEST DATA – December 2010.
GDP in 2009 + 1.7%. Poland was the only European Union country to have avoided recession. In 2010 the growth will be of 3.5% – Central Statistical Office (GUS).
The main driving force behind the economy in the second quarter of 2010 was domestic demand, according to the the National Bank of Poland (NBP). The Economy Ministry expects that economic growth will continue to stimulate activity in the industrial and construction sectors. The data shows that the Polish economy is growing faster than the economies of other EU countries except Slovakia (4.1%). The EU Commission’s view is that the Polish economy is driven by manufacturing and exports. The World Bank has recently raised its forecast of Polish GDP to 4.1% in 2011.
Poland’s image has improved as a result of the global financial crisis. The total value of new foreign direct investment in the first half of 2010 exceeded 5 billion euros and was 75% higher than a year earlier, according to NBP data. In the first half of 2010, the Polish Information and Foreign Investment Agency (PAIiIZ) successfully completed negotiations with foreign investors on 29 new investment projects.
Big privatization projects (2010 – 2013)
Government’s financial plan foresees zl.55 billion (13,5 billion euros) to be made. From the first IPOs the sum got is zl.25 billion.
Economic Outlook – RUSSIA, December 2010.
17 Dec 2010LATEST DATA – December 10 th – 17th, 2010
Vladimir Putin, from interview with the nation December 17th, 2010.
GDP – showed growth of 3,8%, indicating a positive trend. A rise in production by the end of 2010 amount to 8,5-8,6%. Russians’ real incomes in 2010 rose by 2 percent a year, but real wages – by 4.2%, pensions – by 44.9%. This past year has created 1 million 200 thousand new jobs, the economy will come pre-crisis level in the first half of 2012.
Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin.
Assuming an oil price of $75 per barrel, Russia would have a deficit of 4.6 percent of gross domestic product, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said, while in 2007 — when oil averaged $70 — the country had a 5 percent surplus. “That means we’ve really done some serious back-stepping from the principles of fiscal balance,” he added, Interfax reported.
With state debt of less than 11 percent, Russia will be able to handle any fiscal challenges in 2011, Kudrin said.
The volume of incoming revenues to the federal budget in January – November 2010 amounted to 7 trillion 432.365 billion roubles, expenses – 8 trillion 343.865 billion roubles, the Finance Ministry said in a statement.
Cash budget deficit for 11 months of 2010 amounted to 911.501 billion roubles, or 2.2% of GDP, primary deficit – 724.564 billion roubles (1.8% of GDP).
According to Sergey Ignatiev, head of the Russian Central Bank, in November, 2010, the capital outflow from Russia amounted to 9 billion dollars. Since the beginning of the year this value reached 29 billion dollars.
In November inflation has grown 8.4% since the beginning of the year, fueled by a crippling summer drought that drove food prices higher.
Moscow.
Sergei Pakhomov, acting head of Moscow‘s debt committee, said that the city could sell 500 million euros ($611 million) of debt to international investors in 2011 if conditions are favourable, Bloomberg reported.
Wikileaks. NATO, the Baltics, and Russia.
7 Dec 2010The main task of all military organizations is to be prepared for hostilities or to create the conditions to get the peace showing their strength. During the Cold War the “balance of terror” guaranteed five decades of stability to the world.
WikiLeaks cables has revealed secret NATO plans to defend Baltics from Moscow. The decision to draft them was taken earlier this year at request of the United States and Germany at the Northern Atlantic Alliance headquarters. The White House also offered to beef up Polish security against Russia by deploying naval and air forces to the region.
In those months Washington and Moscow were toughly negotiating the new START agreement and President Barack Obama was promoting a new approach to the former foes. The 21st century challenges need new solutions and an agreement among the most developed countries is desirable. Negotiations with the Kremlin were successful at last, and Russia was later invited to join a section of the western security system at Lisbon’s summit in November.
It would have been surprising whether the NATO had not prepared plans to protect its allies in Eastern Europe. In the cables it is written that this planning is an “internal process designed to make the Alliance as prepared as possible for future contingencies” and “it is not ‘aimed’ at any other country.” Relationships with Russia began to be strained after Saint Petersburg’s G8 summit in 2006. A cyber-attack on Estonia in 2007 was believed to have originated in Russia, and the war broke out in Georgia a year later. Russia’s foreign ministry said it was “bewildered” by revelations edited by the British newspaper The Guardian, but this kind of reaction is part of the game.
“After decades of importing and reverse-engineering Russian arms, China has reached a tipping point: It now can produce many of its own advanced weapons—including high-tech fighter jets like the Su-27—and is on the verge of building an aircraft carrier…Now, China is starting to export much of this weaponry…China is developing weapons systems, including aircraft carriers and carrier-based fighters, that could threaten Taiwan and test U.S. control of the Western Pacific.”
Article – Wall Street Journal December 5th, 2010.
Moldova, a Romanian region in 25 years.
30 Nov 2010“In the next 25 years Romania and Moldova could be united again,” Romanian President Traian Basescu said in an article edited in Romanian newspaper Romania Libera. “EU borders will extend to the Dnestr River, and the democratic development in the region will be an incentive for other countries, such as Ukraine, to join the EU,” the president added. “The Balkans will become part of the EU and NATO within 25 years.”
Confident for the euro, Russia and Europe may join single currency someday in the future. Mr. Vladimir Putin took part in the German – Russian summit in Berlin. The euro has proven itself “a stable world currency,” Russian Prime Minister said. “We have to get away from the overwhelming dollar monopoly. It makes the world economy vulnerable,” Putin added. Earlier in a letter edited by a German newspaper the former President wrote “We should be frank about it: The global economic crisis has revealed both Russia and the EU to be economically very vulnerable.” Mr. Putin suggested to create a free-trade zone.
Mrs. Angela Merkel called that a “vision for the future,” and stressed the need for close economic cooperation as a first step. “But the closer our economies are linked, the easier and the more interesting it will be to adjust also the currency policy,” the German Chancellor said. In the meantime, Mrs. Merkel added, Moscow had to conclude talks to join the W.T.O. Russia, which opened its bid to join the WTO in 1993, is the last major world power not a member of the Geneva-based global trade body.
Mr. Putin expressed criticism to the Third Energy Package. Agreed in 2009, it was designed to liberalize the EU’s energy markets by separating the production and distribution networks of large energy companies to foster more competition. The other element of the package allowed smaller energy companies access to the grids, which had been blocked by the big companies. “Our companies, together with German partners, legally acquired distribution assets in Lithuania,” Mr. Putin said. “Now they are being thrown out there with reference to the Third Energy Package. What is this then? What is this robbery?”
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