“Damascus is the “Stalingrad” of Russian diplomacy. After years of geopolitical withdrawal, Moscow has chosen Syria as a way to revive its image of power in the world. “Not one step back” is the Kremlin’s new strategy, as it was for the Red Army along the banks of the Volga river during World War II. To be more convincing, the Kremlin has simultaneously flexed its muscles by supplying sophisticated […]


“It’s nothing personal, but Belka should go,” Leszek Balcerowicz, a Polish finance minister between 1997 and 2000 and former central bank chief told the TVN24 news station.

Balcerowicz said that the secretly recorded conversation between Marek Belka and Interior Minister Bartlomiej Sienkiewicz, published by the Wprost magazine on Sunday, appeared to show “a violation of the neutrality of the National Bank of Poland in proposing a political deal with the ruling party”. PolishFlag

The transcripts of the recording appear to suggest that Minister Sienkiewicz asked the central bank governor to assist the government in reducing debt levels and stimulating the economy in the run up to the scheduled 2015 general election if the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) looked as if it might win the ballot.

Belka, in turn, called for the resignation of the then finance minister Jacek Rostowski, who was later sacked during a cabinet reshuffle four months after the conversation took place in a restaurant in Warsaw in July 2013.

“The central bank is an institution where good performance depends on public confidence. It takes time to build trust […] but it can be lost just as quickly,” Balcerowicz added.

PM Donald Tusk could call snap elections if a “crisis of confidence” worsens following release of illegally recorded tapes purportedly showing political collusion between central bank and government.

From Polskie Radio, PAP

Ukraine situation: Australia designates 50 persons and 11 entities subject to Australia’s autonomous sanctions

On 19 June 2014 the Autonomous Sanctions (Designated Persons and Entities and Declared Persons – Ukraine) List 2014 (the Ukraine List) commenced.

The Ukraine List gives effect to announcements by the Minister of Foreign Affairs on 19 March and 21 May 2014 to impose targeted financial sanctions and travel bans against persons and entities responsible for, or complicit in, the Russian threat to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.

The 50 persons and 11 entities named in Schedule 1 of the Ukraine List satisfy the criteria in regulation 6 of the Autonomous Sanctions Regulations 2011 to be designated for targeted financial sanctions or declared for travel bans. The details of these persons and entities have been published in the DFAT Consolidated List.
Further information: Ukraine sanctions page

La crisi ucraina è una mina nelle relazioni est-ovest. Per alcuni Paesi – ad esempio Germania, Francia ed Italia – rischia di avere anche pesanti ripercussioni, considerando l’alto grado di sviluppo dei rapporti economici con Russia ed Ucraina. ItaliaUE2004

L’obiettivo di trovare una qualche soluzione rapida diventa col passare delle settimane e dei mesi una vera esigenza per limitare i danni. La complessità della crisi non consente l’utilizzo di percorsi semplici, ma serve un intervento globale a largo respiro e, se necessario, il coraggio di scelte non convenzionali.

* * *

Sono principalmente tre i livelli su cui agire:

1. mediazione tra Mosca e Kiev; 2. riformulazione dei rapporti bilaterali Russia-Ue; 3. ridefinizione delle relazioni Russia-Nato.

* * *

1. L’accordo per un cessate il fuoco si scontra con l’attuale necessità delle parti di giungere ad una futura trattativa da posizioni di forza. Soltanto l’invio di unità dei Paesi dell’Osce, l’Organizzazione per la Sicurezza e la Cooperazione in Europa, può evitare in Ucraina orientale un bagno di sangue. Un qualche negoziato può iniziare sulla base di concessioni, messe per iscritto, del governo centrale in materia di autonomia regionale. Ma servirà una mediazione esterna, apprezzata sia da russi che da ucraini.

Per la Crimea, sono necessari, invece, approcci non convenzionali. Altrimenti la penisola contesa si troverà stritolata dal presente conflitto.

2. La presa di coscienza della reciproca necessità e dei vantaggi incommensurabili di una collaborazione fruttifera tra Russia ed Ue è la base di partenza. Le 4 macroaree su cui sono imperniate le relazioni bilaterali sono state superate dagli eventi. Urge una più ambiziosa riformulazione dei rapporti con passi significativi, ad iniziare dall’abolizione immediata dei visti.

3. L’architettura di Pratica di Mare è entrata in crisi. Il coinvolgimento di Mosca nella questione delle difese anti-missilistiche in Europea è la chiave di volta per la sicurezza continentale.

* * *

Cosa rischia l’Italia?

Siamo davanti ad un cambiamento geostrategico, comparabile a quello avutosi nel XVI secolo.

1. Nella precedente architettura l’Italia era destinata a diventare un “hub” energetico. La costruzione del Nord Stream per il consorzio russo-tedesco, quella già avvenuta in precedenza del Blue Stream verso la Turchia e la futura del South Stream consegnava al BelPaese una posizione invidiabile.

In futuro gli approvvigionamenti dello shale gas dagli Stati Uniti, che giungeranno nei porti dell’Atlantico, allontaneranno l’Italia dalle grandi rotte dell’energia, rischiando di annacquare il valore di un “partner strategico” come la Russia.

2. Il volume degli scambi commerciali ed industriali – rivelatisi fondamentali negli ultimi anni per le medie e piccole imprese italiane – con Russia ed Ucraina rischia di ridimensionarsi.

La Presidenza semestrale italiana dell’Unione europea dal 1 luglio 2014 è un’occasione che non va assolutamente sprecata.

Giuseppe D’Amato

The leader of the Crimean Tatars Mustafa Dzhemilev received the Solidarity Prize from Polish President Bronislaw Komorowski on the day the country marks 25 years since the end of communism. komorovskiDzhemiliev

New Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, US secretary of State Kerry, Swedish minister of Foreign Affairs Bildt, former Polish President Lech Walesa took part at the ceremony.

Mustafa Dzhemilev was banned from entering Russian territory, including the recently annexed Crimea, after he condemned the March referendum.

On Monday evening Dzhemilev told Polish public television station TVP that the Crimean Tatars would continue to fight for their rights.

“We are not going to wage war against Russia, We have not shed anyone’s blood, We will fight for our rights with peaceful means.” he said.

Dzhemilev, like the vast majority of Crimean Tatars, was deported from his homeland in 1944, and he grew up in Uzbekistan, where he was involved in dissident activities. He returned to Crimea in 1989.

“For years, Mustafa Dzhemilev has been promoting democracy and civil rights and civil liberties in Ukraine, specifically among the Tatar community,” Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said.

“The people of Ukraine made a very good choice, I have known Petro Poroshenko for many years,” said Dzhemilev of the presidential elections of 25 May.

“He is a patriot, an honest man, even though a businessman. It is very important for me that he said that the most important matter is to free Crimea from the occupation. Without being released from the occupation, we cannot imagine how we will be able to live on,” he added.

From Polskie Radio, TVP

Mustafa Dzhemilev’s battle for Crimea Deutsche Welle

A eulogy to the life of Wojciech Jaruzelski was given by former Polish President (1995-2005) Aleksander Kwasniewski. He said about imposing martial law crackdown against the Solidarity movement in 1981 that “with sincere conviction at a moment of severe crisis the lesser of two evils: protecting us from either foreign intervention or a fraternal civil war”.

Lech Walesa, former chief of Solidarity Trade Union and then Polish president, took part at the ceremony and gave his condolences to the General’s family.

Jaruzelski, who died aged 90 on May 25th, rests in peace in Warsaw’s Pawazki Military Cemetery, the place of burial of many notable Poles.

Material from Polskie Radio and PAP

Il vento è cambiato in Ucraina. Con la scelta di un presidente, legittimato dall’investitura popolare addirittura senza il ballottaggio, il presunto vuoto di potere a Kiev è stato colmato. La Russia ha per questo, almeno parzialmente, cambiato il proprio approccio alla crisi, dopo aver ritirato le truppe dalla frontiera la settimana prima delle elezioni.

La fase – definiamola “militare regolare” -, è per il momento chiusa. Invadere “ufficialmente” il Donbass e la regione di Lugansk sarebbe un inutile suicidio politico – diplomatico. Mosca erediterebbe realtà socio-economiche difficilissime, che necessitano di rilevanti investimenti finanziari. Che ci pensi l’Europa a prendersi un tale fardello!” ItalyRussia

Il Cremlino ora mira ad incassare gli oltre due miliardi di dollari di forniture di gas non pagate dagli ucraini, che, dal canto loro, sono disposti sì a saldare il conto, ma soltanto in cambio di un futuro prezzo equo. Altrimenti Kiev si rivolgerà al Tribunale arbitrale di Stoccolma e la Gazprom sarà costretta ad aspettare i suoi soldi ancora chissà quanto.

La Russia ha adesso non poco da perdere: il vantaggio accumulato nelle settimane post deposizione di Janukovich è finito. Ecco la ragione delle timide aperture diplomatiche di queste ore. Mosca, però, non vuole mediatori occidentali tra i piedi. La ragione è semplice: gli europei hanno colpe enormi nello scoppio della crisi; i ministri degli Esteri polacco, francese e tedesco hanno garantito il 20 febbraio scorso un accordo per la sopravvivenza politica di Janukovich, sconfessato dagli eventi dopo manco una notte.

La diplomazia russa ha quindi iniziato una mini-offensiva con contatti a più livelli. Il presidente Putin ha parlato al telefono con Matteo Renzi. L’Italia avrà dal primo luglio la presidenza di turno semestrale dell’Ue. Il Cremlino si attende un aiuto dagli storici partner per uscire da questo pantano.

Giuseppe D’Amato

Россия неприкрыто вмешивается во внутренние дела Украины. Рамзан Кадыров может многое, но не все. Например, не может запретить своим бойцам рассказывать в Донецке западным журналистам, кто они такие и что они прибыли сюда защищать интересы РФ.

По-пацански это, конечно, круто, но лишает Россию политического маневра. Теперь никто в мире не поверит, что “Россия тут не причем, это местные ополченцы”. Россия таким образом становится де-факто воюющей стороной. Это плохой выбор и никудышная политика (про спонсорство международного терроризма я уж не говорю).

Тем больше будет поддержка Украины со стороны США и ЕС. Тем меньше шансов у России избежать ужесточения санкций. И даже просто эффективно лоббировать интересы Газпрома. Россия, конечно, очень крутая, она может плевать на всех. Но есть опасность, что и все теперь могут наплевать на нее.

Боюсь, ничем хорошим это не кончится. Даже если руками боевиков, не только чеченских, Донбасс будет отрезан от Украины, это не принесет России никаких бонусов. Исключительно и только проблемы, ком которых продолжит нарастать с каждым днем. Хотя и Крыма для международной изоляции вполне достаточно. EastUkraineDonbassLuganskWikipedia

Такая “пацанская” политика — когда весь мир с наглой ухмылкой держат за дураков — хороша в режиме “гоп-стоп”, но перспективе это удавка на собственной шее. Как можно этого не осознавать?

Россия должна прекратить копать себе политическую и экономическую яму и отозвать боевиков из Донбасса. Бездумное “продолжение банкета” обернется поражением страны и всех ее граждан. И не когда-то в далеком будущем, а довольно скоро.

Граждане России, возможно, удобны как объект пропаганды, и это расслабляет пропагандистов. Но россияне поймут, в каком глубоком тупике оказались, на личном опыте (растущее раздражение “новой жизнью” в Крыму — тому свидетельство), и тогда у власти возникнут серьезные проблемы внутри страны. Пример Абхазии — ну, куда уж ближе, от нее (него) до “большой России” рукой подать. И что тогда делать будем, хватит ли вежливых людей на всех недовольных? Неужели и это никому из принимающих решения не понятно?

Крымнашизмом долго сыт не будешь. В изоляции от мира “красиво” не заживешь. Ястреб только с виду благородная птица. У ястребов всегда куриные мозги. А когда народ окончательно придет в себя, будет плохо. И ястребам в том числе. Крутизна — это классно смотрится, но с нее обычно падают в пропасть.

Blog – Ayder Muzhdabaev – Айдер Муждабаев - Facebook

The EU Vote – 2014

28 May 2014
Political Group Votes MEPs
Political Group % Change+/- Total Change +/-
Epp 24.22 -8.29 221 -50
Soc 24.26 +1.58 185 -6
Oth 20.91 +7.38 113 +84
Lib 7.87 -2.42 55 -30
Grn 7.21 -0.04 47 -8
Con 4.16 -0.59 45 -11
Left 6.23 +2.1 45 +10
Efd 5.13 0.29 40 +11

Место

Кандидат

Голосов

1 Порошенко Петр 54.70 % – 9.857.308
2 Тимошенко Юлия 12.81 % – 2.310.130
3 Ляшко Олег 8.32 %  –  1.500.377
4 Гриценко Анатолий 5.48 %  –     989.029
5 Тигипко Сергей 5.23 %  –     943.350
6 Добкин Михаил 3.03 %  –     546.138
7 Рабинович Вадим 2.25 %  –     406.301
8 Богомолец Ольга 1.91 %  –     345.384
9 Симоненко Петр 1.52 %  –     272.723
10 Тягнибок Олег 1.16 %  –     210.476
11 Ярош Дмитрий 0.70 %  –     127.772
12 Гриненко Андрей 0.40 %  –       73.277
13 Коновалюк Валерий 0.38 %  –       69.569
14 Бойко Юрий 0.19 %  –       35.928
15 Маломуж Николай 0.13 %  –       23.771
16 Кузьмин Ренат 0.10 %  –       18.689
17 Куйбида Василий 0.06 %  –       12.391
18 Клименко Александр 0.05 %  –       10.545
19 Цушко Василий 0.05 %  –       10.434
20 Саранов Владимир 0.03 %  –         6.232
21 Шкиряк Зорян 0.02 %  –         5.021   – ЦИК

Dalia Grybauskaite was re-elected president of Lithuania in a runoff. She won 58% of the votes with her Social Democrat rival Zigmantas Balcytis trailing on 42%. Early results showed about 43.7 percent of the country’s 2.5 million registered voters went to the polls. Lithuanians also voted to fill 11 seats in the European Parliament.
Ms Grybauskaite thanked her supporters for granting her a second term.

“No president has been elected twice in a row in Lithuania. It will be a historic victory for all of you,” she said.
She is an economist who served as Lithuania’s finance minister and EU budget commissioner before becoming her country’s first female president in 2009.

Welcome

We are a group of long experienced European journalists and intellectuals interested in international politics and culture. We would like to exchange our opinion on new Europe and Russia.

Rossosch – Medio Don

Italiani in Russia, Ucraina, ex Urss


Our books


                  SCHOLL